Is Black Friday Really the Cheapest Time to Buy? What the Data Shows
Often not, according to the studies we found. But those studies are old and from the UK, and prices differ by product. Here is what they found, three dated 2026 examples from our own pages, and a four-step check you can run on any product.
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What the studies found
Which?, the UK consumer group, tracked prices every day around Black Friday. These are its two studies we found:
- Black Friday 2020, 201 deals: Which? (November 23, 2021) tracked each product daily for six months before and six months after at six UK retailers. It found 99.5% were the same price or cheaper at other times of the year, 92% were the same or cheaper in the six months before, and 40% were strictly cheaper at some other time. Only one of the 201 was at its cheapest on Black Friday alone.
- An earlier Which? study, 83 products: Which? via LBC (November 26, 2019) said just 5% of Black Friday deals were cheaper during the sale than at other times.
How to read this: "the same price or cheaper" includes ties, so many of these products were simply not discounted on Black Friday. It does not mean Black Friday prices are fake, and it does not mean they never win. It also covers UK retailers in 2019 and 2020, not US stores in 2026.
Three dated 2026 examples
| Product | Earlier price | Later or Black Friday price | What it shows |
|---|---|---|---|
| AirPods Pro 3 | $179 on Oct 6, 2026, with $169 reported around Prime Day | $220 on Nov 28, 2025 (Black Friday) | Last year's Black Friday price was higher than prices reported this year |
| AirPods Max 2 | $150 off most colors around Prime Day in late June 2026 | $449 on Jul 27 and $429 on Oct 5 | The lowest reported price was in June, not November |
| MacBook Neo | $589.99 at Amazon in April 2026 | Apple raised the price to $699 on June 25 | Waiting made it more expensive |
These are single products reported by 9to5Toys (November 28, 2025), 9to5Toys (October 6, 2026), 9to5Toys (July 27, 2026), AppleInsider (April 16, 2026) and MacRumors (June 25, 2026), not a study. Black Friday 2026 hasn't happened yet, so we can't say where this year's prices will land.
A four-step buy-or-wait check
- Find the history for your exact model. The free Zroppix extension shows 90 days on Amazon, or use a tracker such as CamelCamelCamel or Keepa.
- Compare today's price with the lowest in that history. If it is at or near the low, waiting has less to offer.
- Check the safety net. Some stores refund the difference if the price drops, as in our price adjustment guide.
- Decide with an alert. If the price is well above the low, set an alert and buy when it falls. This is a rule of thumb, not a prediction.
When Black Friday can still make sense
We don't say Black Friday deals are fake or that prices always fall. Some products do hit their lowest price then, and the Which? study found one of 201 did. The point is that you can't assume it. Black Friday is November 27 and Cyber Monday is November 30, 2026, and our Black Friday deal checker helps you check a price on the day.
Common mistakes
- Trusting the "was" price. A crossed-out price is not a price history.
- Waiting for a discount that doesn't come. The MacBook Neo example went up in June.
- Ignoring earlier sales. Prime Day in June was lower than last year's Black Friday for the AirPods Pro 3.
- Comparing different versions. Model, color and seller change the price.
Don't wait for a Black Friday price that isn't there
The studies say prices at other times were often the same or lower. Whether that is true for your product is a five-second check. The free check shows the best dated price we find today. Pro adds the other stores, coupons with expiry dates and cashback, and a daily watch on up to 20 products, so you can buy when a price drops instead of when a sale says so. We can't promise any store will beat another.
Free check
- The best dated price we found, and where it came from
- What we rejected, and why
- A link to the price history
Pro · $14/month
- The other stores, prices and links we hold back
- Coupon codes with their expiry dates
- Cashback rates, open-box and refurbished offers
- Shipping and total price on every offer
- A daily watch on up to 20 products
The first check is free with no sign-up. Pro has a 3-day money-back guarantee, and you can cancel in one click. We show only prices with a date on the page, and we can't promise any store will beat another.
Frequently asked questions
Is Black Friday the cheapest time to buy?
Not always. Which? found 99.5% of 201 UK deals from 2020 were the same price or cheaper at other times, and only one was at its cheapest on Black Friday alone. That is UK data, and prices vary by product.
Are Black Friday deals fake?
Not all of them. Many were the same price as at other times, which means they weren't a discount. Check the price history for your exact product.
Should I wait for Black Friday?
It depends on the product. Compare today's price with the lowest in its history, and use an alert if it is well above that. Black Friday 2026 is November 27.
How can I check a price history?
Install the free Zroppix extension for a 90-day history on Amazon pages, or use a tracker such as CamelCamelCamel or Keepa.
What if the price drops after I buy?
Some stores refund the difference within a window. See our price adjustment guide for the reported rules.
Check the price before you wait
Compare today's price with the dated prices and see if it is already low.
🛡️ See the Real Price History
The free Zroppix extension shows a product's price history and a BUY or WAIT verdict right on the Amazon page, so you can tell a real deal from a fake discount.
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How this page was made. Written by the Zroppix team with AI assistance (Claude, from Anthropic). Prices and facts can change after a page is written, so check the retailer’s own page before you buy. This page has no affiliate links. We make Zroppix and sell Zroppix Pro, a paid plan.